
How to Read the Fed's Dot Plot Without Overreading It
Nineteen dots, each an individual's rate guess for years ahead — the median moves markets, and the honest reading treats the scatter as sentiment, not promise.
Daily market reporting written for individuals: what moved, which release caused it, and whether the development warrants any change to a long-term plan.

Nineteen dots, each an individual's rate guess for years ahead — the median moves markets, and the honest reading treats the scatter as sentiment, not promise.

With May CPI at 4.2% — the highest in three years — the June meeting kept the funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, extending the hold streak.

Headline, core, shelter, and the monthly annualized run rate — four numbers turn the consumer price index from noise into a usable signal.

The April 28-29 meeting kept the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% on a 9-3 vote — three dissents that map the committee's inflation argument.

The 12-month consumer price index jumped to 3.3% in data reported in April 2026, rebounding from January's 2.4% on an energy-driven spike.